Citigroup – a global financial services company with headquarters in New York City – has announced its version of the next group of eleven economies with the most promising growth prospects.
The group of eleven economies, which includes Nigeria, is tagged the ‘3G’ – Global Growth Generators – and they indicate “sources of growth potential and of profitable investment opportunities,” according the financial company.
In a report published on February 21, Citigroup said: “We identify the 11 countries which have the most promising growth prospects. Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Mongolia, Nigeria, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam are our 3G countries,”
The report scored Nigeria 0.25 – the lowest among the group of eleven – and forecast an average growth of 6.9% for the country – the highest among the group of eleven – over the period of 40 years (2010 – 2050).
The report also forecast that Africa will be the fastest growing region – 7.0% per growth in real GDP between 2010 and 2050 – followed by the Developing Asia at 5.4%.
Citi criteria for selecting the ‘3G’ is based on six growth drivers – measure of domestic saving/investment, demographic prospects, health, education, quality of institutions and policies and trade openness.
Some of the major factors that have influenced the selection of Nigeria as a promising economy in recent years are based on the country’s political and macroeconomic stability – considered crucial to global investment – and its enormous untapped market among others.
Goldman Sachs had in 2005 identified Nigeria as one of the next eleven emerging markets.
Citigroup, however, argues that the term emerging market is vague and therefore has “past its sell-by date.”
“Our aim is to identify countries, regions, cities, industries, sectors, technologies, enterprises, products and asset classes that have the potential for fast future growth and for profitable investment opportunities and to identify any common causal factors, or clusters of factors,behind this superior prospective performance,” the report explained.
For countries such as Nigeria, the biggest challenge will be how to turn its economy consuming status to that of producing.
As a country that is rich in natural resources, Nigeria once failed to maximize its wealth from crude oil by encouraging robust and competitive industrialization that could have placed it on equal status with newly industrialized nations.
Economic observers, however, hoped that the country will get it right this time around.
If Nigeria fails to meet its economic prospect by 2050, the country might have to wait for another painful 100 years to lift its timing population out of poverty.
Yemi Ifegbuyi is a senior editorialist and director of operations for SBG media, publisher of nigeriansbaroadlive.com. He is also a strategic communications consultant on politics and business development, with special interest in North-America, Asia and sub-Sahara Africa. Follow him on Twitter: @tweetyemi